Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy

نویسنده

  • Bharat Barot
چکیده

This paper consists of two parts. In the first part we carry out a traditional growth accounting exercise for the private business sectors of the Swedish economy. We search for structural breaks during the sample period, using Chow tests, using a dynamic specification of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rates. Grangercausality tests are carried out for the nine sub-sectors of the private business sectors of the Swedish economy. We combine the growth rates of value added and hours worked and calculate labour productivity for the period 1960-1999. In order to facilitate comparisons we compare the results of this study with Swedish and international studies. To a large extent we are able to replicate the Swedish results. The slow down in TFP growth rates in the 1970s can be identified with the first and the second oil shocks in 1973 and 1979. The other structural breaks occurred in the early 1990s and could possibly be identified with the Tax Reform of the Century in 1991 and the severest of recession in the Swedish economy. The Granger-causality test indicate that growth rates in investment Granger cause growth rates in TFP for Agriculture and financial institutions, real estate and other business, while TFP growth rates in mining and quarrying, and manufacturing Granger cause growth rates in investment. The second part of the paper I Hodrick-Prescott filter the data, and calculate cross correlation’s of detrended output, hours, investment and TFP at different leads and lags. The results indicate that investment leads TFP for agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, electricity gas and water, and for education, health and social work and community social and personal services. Investment lags TFP for the mining and quarrying, manufacturing industry, and for financial institutions and insurance companies, real estate renting and business service companies. Hours worked lead the TFP cycle for mining and quarrying, manufacturing and wholesale/retail trade. The decomposition of TFP into trend and cyclical component historical dates the business cycle. Standard deviations of the cyclical components of value added, hours worked, TFP, and gross investment reveals that the most volatile variables are gross investment, followed by TFP, GDP and hours worked. The contribution of this part of the paper lies in the disaggregated data set containing annual information for the period 1963-1999, and in the application of several analytical tools to the growth accounting exercise results. In addition such an extensive growth accounting exercise has not been carried out for the private business sectors of the Swedish economy. The data set used in this study can be used for replication purposes.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in Iran using Markov-switching Models

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic growth over business cycles in Iran. Estimating the models using the Hamilton (1989) Markov-switching model and by employing the data for 1960-2012, the results well identify two regimes characterized as expansion and recession. Moreover, the results show that an expansionary monetary policy has a positive and statist...

متن کامل

Dating Business Cycle in Oil Exporting Countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

متن کامل

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Business Cycles in Iran Economy

Nowadays one of the most important issues in our economy, both from economic and political view is the link between monetary policy and business cycle fluctuations. Amongst the shocks related to the supply side, the shock of oil price is the important factor that has affected the world economy since the 1970s. This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on the busine...

متن کامل

Credit Cycles of the Iranian Economy

There is a lot of evidence on the relationship between business cycles and financial. We study the credit cycles of the Iranian Economy and their relationship with the business cycles. The literature suggests using various indicators for credit cycles. We use the ratio of banking loan to the private sector to potential nominal GDP as the indicator of credit status. Contraction and expansion per...

متن کامل

Test of Real Business Cycle Theory in Iran's economy

This paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of fluctuations in iran’s economy. For this purpose, based on the work of Boschen and Mills, a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence 01’ these variables ...

متن کامل

Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles: A DSGE Model for the Iranian Economy

T his paper investigates the movement between stock market bubbles and fluctuations in aggregate variables within a DSGE model for the Iranian economy. We apply a new Keynesian monetary framework with nominal rigidity in wages and prices based on the study by Ikeda (2013), which is developed with appropriate framework for the Iranian economy. We consider central bank behavior differe...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1963